Recidivism Myths
The myth of high recidivism rates for sexual offenses is not supported by data. Learn what the research actually shows.
Debunking the Myth of “Frightening & High” Recidivism
The term recidivism is problematic — several approaches exist for measuring it, each hinging on a distinct interpretation of re-engagement. Proponents of the registry continue to lean on the decades-old myth that recidivism rates for sexual offenses are “frightening and high,” citing unsupported statistics. Advocates for Change stands behind real data.
What the Data Actually Shows
Sexual offense recidivism rates are “frightening and high.”
The U.S. Sentencing Commission followed 32,135 federal persons who reentered society in 2010 for eight years. The 2021 report showed only 80 (0.2%) were rearrested for sexual assault.
People with sexual offenses reoffend at higher rates than other criminals.
State-level corrections data consistently shows that parolees with sexual offenses have among the lowest re-arrest rates of any crime classification. A BJS 9-year follow-up found only 7.7% were rearrested for another sex offense — second only to homicide in lowest rearrest rates.
CSAM-related offenders inevitably escalate to contact offenses.
Studies show remarkably low reoffense rates — a meta-analysis found only 3.4% committed any sexual reoffense and just 0.66% committed a contact offense. A significant portion of rearrests are for registry-related technical violations, not new offenses.
Meta-analyses across multiple jurisdictions show sexual offense recidivism rates of approximately 5–15% over 5 years, far below the rates commonly cited by registry proponents.
Colorado’s Own Data Confirms This
Colorado’s Sex Offender Management Board (SOMB), established under CRS 16-11.7-101 through 107, tracks outcomes for individuals in sex offense treatment. Their data consistently shows sexual re-offense rates of 3–5% for those who complete treatment — dramatically lower than public perception.
The Colorado Department of Corrections recidivism reports confirm that individuals convicted of sexual offenses have among the lowest re-conviction rates of any offense category tracked by the state.
Despite this data, Colorado’s Lifetime Supervision Act (CRS 18-1.3-1004) imposes indeterminate sentences for certain sexual offenses — meaning individuals can remain under state supervision indefinitely, regardless of their actual risk level or treatment progress.
Why This Matters
When policymakers rely on inflated recidivism myths rather than actual data, the result is overly broad, one-size-fits-all policies that waste resources and fail to target the highest-risk individuals. Evidence-based approaches — including validated risk assessments and individualized supervision — produce better outcomes for both public safety and successful reintegration.
Colorado’s laws and policies should be built on current research, not decades-old assumptions.
Learn More
Explore the research behind rational reform and help move Colorado toward evidence-based policy.